Retail Intelligence
& Commodities
Forecasting.
We transform unstructured spatial data, satellite imagery, and macroeconomic indicators into strategic edge. Access our proprietary signals or leverage our expertise for bespoke infrastructure.
Retail Real Estate
Intelligence
Satellite-driven location intelligence covering 2,500+ stores across Northern Europe. We use parking occupancy as a revenue-change proxy — delivering bi-weekly sales-delta signals and competitor positioning without any POS data.
Commodities &
Energy Forecasting
Multi-parameter predictive and forecasting models for European energy and agricultural commodities. We ingest gas storage, live terminal flows, ENTSO-E power data, weather, satellite flaring, and NDVI crop signals into a systematic ensemble that generates 14-day directional forecasts.
Services
Bespoke Engineering
& Advisory
Institutional-grade analytical capability without the overhead. Retainer or project basis, 4–12 week engagements.
Data Architecture & PostGIS
Optimizing and building scalable spatial databases for massive geospatial datasets. Multi-tenant schema design, performance tuning, and production PostGIS/PostgreSQL infrastructure.
Discuss this servicePredictive Modelling & AI
Developing and tuning advanced predictive models — Neural Networks, LightGBM, CatBoost — on complex corporate data. From feature engineering through production deployment.
Discuss this serviceRetail & Location Strategy
Spatial interaction modelling (Huff model), white-space analysis, and competitor tracking. Turn raw location data into defensible site selection and portfolio decisions.
Discuss this serviceData Infrastructure
Three Independent
Imagery Layers
Each layer is validated against the others. Disagreement triggers a confidence downgrade — agreement triggers a lock. Over 2,500 locations active across Northern Europe.
Sentinel-1 SAR
Synthetic Aperture Radar · 10m · All-weather · Biweekly
C-band SAR (VV+VH polarisation) from ESA Copernicus, processed with Lee speckle filter and terrain correction. Biweekly temporal cadence since 2022 delivers a continuous occupancy baseline — immune to cloud cover and lighting conditions. VH ROI-minus-ring contrast is our primary parking-density proxy.
Sentinel-2 Optical
Multispectral · 10m · Cloud-filtered · B04/B08 fusion
Sentinel-2 B04/B08 (Red + NIR) paired with per-store Static Noise Maps that remove persistent surface artefacts. Bayesian hierarchical fusion with SAR yields cloud-robust occupancy estimates. When S2 and SAR confirm, signal confidence reaches 1.0.
Aerial Orthophotos
10 cm/px · Sub-meter · YOLO ground-truth anchors
High-resolution national orthophotos — Germany DOP10, Norway NiB (Kartverket), Sweden Lantmäteriet — used as YOLO v8 vehicle-count ground truth. Centimetre-precision car counts calibrate satellite signals and classify parking surface type (asphalt / mixed), improving seasonal model accuracy.
Proprietary Signals
Proprietary Signals
Model 01 · Commodities
MomentumAlpha TTF Precision Engine
Quantitative fundamental model for the European gas market
MomentumAlpha TTF Precision Engine operates as a digital twin of Europe's physical energy system. Unlike traditional technical strategies, 70% is driven by physical supply and demand data, while 30% captures the market's psychological momentum. A built-in, dynamic risk management layer automatically reduces exposure when market volatility becomes extreme.
Model Architecture
The Four Pillars
Advanced Temperature & Demand Analysis
Rather than relying on linear weather forecasts, the model computes a population- and industry-weighted heating demand (HDD). Specific demographic and industrial hubs are monitored with heavy weight on key regions in Germany and Italy — a cold snap in a densely populated industrial area is assigned proper definitional power over cold fronts in uninhabited regions.
Physical Inventory & Panic Indicators
The model monitors total European storage volume in absolute energy units (TWh) and links storage status to weather data via a proprietary interaction factor. The algorithm identifies and responds to market panic when low storage levels are exposed to sudden cold shocks.
European Logistics & Supply Shocks
Direct links to physical export terminals for pipeline gas, plus global LNG arbitrage margins (European prices vs. Asia/US). The model detects unexpected supply disruptions in the North Sea in real time via satellite vessel tracking and live terminal data feeds.
Power Sector & Industrial Demand (Spark Spread)
Gas is analysed in the context of power and carbon allowances (EUA). The model integrates institutional data from European Day-Ahead power auctions and computes real plant margins (Clean Spark Spread) — registering when prices rise high enough that industry chooses to shut down (Demand Destruction).
Backtest Metrics · Multi-regime (pre- and post-crisis)
MomentumAlpha gives the investor an emotionless, data-driven “edge” in one of the world’s most volatile commodity markets. By understanding the underlying physical and financial forces, the model positions ahead of large structural price moves — while protecting capital when markets are driven by pure noise.
{
"_tables": ["paper_trading_log", "ttf_fundamentals"],
"signal_id": "PTL-20260520-TTF-0041",
"asset": "TTF_NATURAL_GAS",
"signal_direction": "LONG",
"confidence": 0.92,
"horizon_days": 10,
"regime": "TIGHTENING_SUPPLY",
"timestamp": "2026-05-20T09:41:00Z",
"fundamentals": {
"fundamental_score": 0.71,
"momentum_score": 0.38,
"storage_TWh": 612.4,
"hdd_anomaly": 2.1,
"spark_spread": "POSITIVE",
"norwegian_flow_mcm": 318.7
},
"status": "BETA_ACCESS_ONLY"
}Model 02
Retail Real Estate
Intelligence
Tri-layer remote sensing intelligence covering 2,500+ retail locations across Northern Europe. We track parking occupancy as a real-time proxy for store revenue — delivering weekly sales-change signals and competitor positioning without any POS data.
Sales Change Detection
Bi-weekly parking delta signals serve as a leading proxy for in-store sales change. Calibrated against DOP10 YOLO vehicle anchors, our model tracks revenue momentum across 2,500+ locations with >90% directional accuracy.
Competitor Intelligence
Live occupancy tracking across 300+ chain registries — grocery, DIY, QSR, fashion. Competitive pressure scores, catchment overlap modelling (Huff), and white-space opportunity maps delivered as structured data or API.
Bayesian Fusion Engine
NumPyro hierarchical Bayes fuses SAR, S2, and YOLO anchors. Confidence = 1.0 when SAR + S2 agree. Automatic SAR fallback on cloud-impacted S2 epochs keeps signal continuity year-round.
About
The
Expertise
Northstar Signal is built on a rare combination of strategic business acumen and deep technical craft. With an MSc in Economics and an MBA, we understand the commercial context behind every data problem — not just the mechanics.
Over 15 years of specialised data engineering in Python, PostGIS, and machine learning have been dedicated to building infrastructure that actually works at scale — from processing 3.4 million Overture Places records to fusing multi-source satellite imagery into actionable signals.
The result: advisory that bridges the gap between executive strategy and production-grade quantitative systems. No bloated teams. No off-the-shelf software wrapped in consulting hours. Pure, proprietary engineering.
Academic
- MSc Economics
- MBA
Technical
- Python
- PostGIS
- ML
Domain
- European Retail
- Energy